Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 美樂地 GA店家冠軍賽20260131
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1211–1536
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1218
Q3 1372
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 13.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.8% | -19.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
